別以為中國不再加息

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【補習社, 英文補習, 補習英文, 中文補習, 補習中文, 英文課程, 暑期課程, 補習數學, 數學補習】 Time for a rethink? Within China, speculation has been rife that the government is set to announce a targeted loosening of monetary policy. Most China economists think the central bank is done raising interest rates. 是不是該反思瞭？中國國內盛傳，政府將有針對性地放松貨幣政策。多數研究中國的經濟學傢也認為央行已經完成加息。 But Wednesday's second-quarter gross-domestic-product numbers showed the country's economy expanding 9.5% from a year earlier, down only slightly from the first quarter's healthy 9.7%. That hardly qualifies as a worrisome slowdown. Moreover, the headline GDP figure is misleading. On a sequential, seasonally adjusted basis, the way GDP growth is measured in most economies, GDP growth actually accelerated, rising an annualized 9.1% in the second quarter, compared with 8.7% in the first. 但周三發佈的數據顯示，第二季度國內生產總值(GDP)較上年同期增長9.5%，隻是略低於一季度9.7%的穩健增速。很難說這種放緩值得擔憂。而且總體GDP數字是有誤導性的。根據多數經濟體采用的按季節性因素調整的環比計算方法，GDP增長實際上還在加速，第二季度年化增長率為9.1%，高於一季度的8.7%。 That the Chinese economy managed to accelerate while the rest of the world stalled is impressive. 其他國傢經濟陷入停頓時，中國經濟還能加速增長，實在令人驚嘆。 A closer look shows even more bullish signs. Industrial-production growth rebounded strongly, rising 15.1% from a year earlier in June, the highest reading since May 2010. Economists had forecast a 13.1% rise, after 13.3% in May. The surprise increase may have been due to the easing of power shortages that had crimped production in recent months. 如果更仔細地看，還能發現更多的看漲跡象。工業增加值強勁反彈，6月份同比增速達到15.1%，為2010年5月以來最高增速。經濟學傢事先預計增長13.1%，低於5月份的13.3%。這種意外加速的原因，可能是近幾個月抑制生產的電荒得到瞭緩解。 Those still holding out for a policy loosening found some cause for hope in comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao the day before the data were released. He declared that fighting inflation still is the government's top priority, but also paid lip service to slowdown fears by pledging to prevent any 'large fluctuations' in economic growth. 國務院總理溫傢寶在數據發表前一天所說的話，讓那些仍在等待政策放松的人們看到瞭一些希望。他宣佈抗通脹仍然是政府的重頭任務，但也承諾防止經濟增長大起大落，針對人們的減速擔憂做瞭表面上的回應。 The domestic stock market, which fixates on official pronouncements, clearly detected dovish hints in this language, rising in early morning trading even before the data were announced. 緊盯官方表態的國內股市明顯從溫傢寶的話裡面察覺到瞭溫和跡象，在數據還沒有發佈時的早盤最初一段時間就已經上漲。 In truth, it is dangerous to pay too much attention to these official statements, which are carefully crafted to appease multiple constituencies. The surprisingly strong data speak for themselves. 事實上，過多關註這些官方表態是危險的，因為這些精心錘煉的話是為瞭取悅多個方面的民眾。超預期的強勁數據本身就說明瞭問題。 The key factor to watch still is inflation. The consensus among economists is that it has peaked and gradually will decline for the rest of the year. If that is the case, there may not be a need for another interest-rate increase. But forecasters have a poor record predicting Chinese inflation; nearly all of them underestimated its current severity. Volatile factors like pork shortages and weather conditions make it inherently unpredictable. 需要關註的關鍵因素仍是通貨膨脹。經濟學界一般認為通脹率已經見頂，年內將逐步下降。如果真是這樣，可能就不必再次加息。但預言傢預測中國通脹率一直不太準，當前通脹的嚴重性就幾乎沒有人預料到。由於存在豬肉短缺、天氣條件等波動性較大的因素，中國通脹率本來就無法預測。 China should raise rates further to tame inflation and avoid further distortions from negative real interest rates. The chances have risen that it actually might take more of the medicine it needs. 中國應該進一步上調利率，以遏制通貨膨脹，並避免實際負利率進一步造成扭曲。服用超劑量“藥劑”的可能性已經越來越大。 Tags: 補習社, 英文補習 , 補習英文, 中文補習 , 補習中文, 英文課程, 暑期課程, 補習數學, 數學補習